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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 05 August 11
THE WORLDS LARGEST COAL MINER TO INVEST IN INDO MINES
COALspot.com - Golden Energy Mines (GEMS) might go for initial public offering (IPO) by the end of September 2011. The company is planning to off lo ...
Friday, 05 August 11
DRY BULK MARKET FINALLY TAKES A BREATHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market at last caught a break mid-week after a constant fall which saw the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) falli ...
Thursday, 04 August 11
THE HBA CONTINUES TO FALL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has set the August 2011 coal reference price at US$ 117.21 per ton slightly low ...
Wednesday, 03 August 11
DEWA RETURNS TO US$2.65 MIO NET PROFIT - INSIDER STORIES
Coal mining contractor PT Darma Henwa Tbk (DEWA), that most of its revenue is contributed by Kaltim Prima Coal and Arutmin Indonesia, returned to ne ...
Wednesday, 03 August 11
DRY BULK MARKET SINKS TO THREE-MONTH LOWS, BUT CAPESIZES COULD TURN THINGS AROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept on falling this week, on the back of slow cargo demand amid the summer season. Yesterday, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the i ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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