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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 02 August 11
INDONESIA BECOMES SECOND LARGEST COKING COAL EXPORTER
COALspot.com - Indonesia, the largest thermal coal exporter in the world now becomes second biggest coking coal exporter to Japan. Indonesian’ ...
Tuesday, 02 August 11
5TH ASIA PACIFIC COAL TRADING & INVESTMENT OUTLOOK TO PRESENT LATEST TRENDS
Press Release - Global commodities prices have been staying high since the beginning of 2011, resulting in the “TENSION” in various coun ...
Tuesday, 02 August 11
REALM RESOURCES TO ACQUIRE A 75% INTEREST IN THE KATINGAN RIA COAL PROJECT
COALspot.com - Scoping study at the Katingan Ria Coal Project, Central Kalimantan demonstrates positive technical and financial potential for the pr ...
Tuesday, 02 August 11
COAL INDIA TO INVEST IN GOLDEN ENERGY MINES
COALspot.com - Golden Energy Mines, part of PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk’s, is still negotiating with several strategic investors to o ...
Sunday, 31 July 11
CAPES ARE TRADING BELOW $ 9500 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI further softened by 4.46 pct and closed at 1264 points which touched below 1300 points after long time. The Cape and Panamax ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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