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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 26 July 11
UT'S SALES COULD REACH TO 8000 UNITS BY THE END OF 2011
COALspot.com - Sales of Komatsu heavy equipment in the domestic market in the first half of 2011 rose 59 percent to 4333 units compared to the same ...
Monday, 25 July 11
INDONESIA STATE ELECTRICITY COMPANY HAS BURNED 19 MMT OF COAL FOR FIRST HALF OF 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesia's State Electricity Company and other IPPs have burned 19 million tons of coal for first half of this year said,Pamudji Nu ...
Monday, 25 July 11
AKR CORPORINDO TO PRODUCE 0.3 MMT OF COAL BY DECEMBER
COALspot.com - PT AKR Corporindo (AKRA) began producing coal from its mine in Muara Teweh, Central Kalimantan. The company is targeting to pro ...
Sunday, 24 July 11
AN INDIAN PORT SETS A WORLD RECORD FOR CONVENTIONAL COAL DISCHARGE
COALspot.com - Krishnapatnam Port has set a World record for discharging 106,171 tons of steam coal in just 24 hrs using the conventional unloading sy ...
Saturday, 23 July 11
FAR EAST /SE ASIA ROUTE GAINED US$ 3000 HIGHER THAN LAST WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI further softened to by 2.22 pct and closed at 1323 points. The Cape and Panamax index also softened and closed at 1841 points ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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