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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 20 July 11
ANTWERP RECEIVES THE CAPESIZE MG COURAGE
The deepening of the Western Scheldt has made the port of Antwerp easily accessible not only to Ultra Large Container Ships of over 10,000 TEU but a ...
Wednesday, 20 July 11
KALIMANTAN GOLD APPOINTS COMMISSIONER TO SUBSIDIARY
Kalimantan Gold Corporation Limited has announced the appointment of Dr. Bambang Setiawan as Commissioner (a senior advisor) to the Board of PT Kali ...
Wednesday, 20 July 11
CHALLENGER GETS TABANG PROJECT IUP PERMIT
COALspot.com - Challenger Deep Resources Corporation has been getting exploration permit or Izin Usaha Pertambangan (IUP) for its Tabang coal in Eas ...
Wednesday, 20 July 11
TCM COAL PROJECT IN SOUTH KALIMANTAN MOVES TO FINAL FEASIBILITY STUDY
COALspot.com - Pan Asia Corporation Ltd has executed a formal agreement with an underground mining group KOPEX to undertake a final feasibilit ...
Wednesday, 20 July 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON FALLING ON SOFTENING CONDITIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market retreated to lower ground on Tuesday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) fell to 1,330 points, down b ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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