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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 14 July 11
INDO GOVT. SETS JULY COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT US$ 118.24 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia sets coal spot price benchmark for July 2011 at US$ 118.24 per ton, US$ 0 ...
Thursday, 14 July 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS FALLING ON WEAK CAPESIZE SENTIMENT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept on retreating on Wednesday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) falling to 1,383 points, from 1,411 of the previous day. Capesi ...
Thursday, 14 July 11
UNITED TRACTORS BUYS DUTA SEJAHTERA - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR), via a wholly-owned subsidiary PT Tuah Turangga Agung, will acquire PT Duta Sejahtera a ...
Wednesday, 13 July 11
ANOTHER FIRMER WEEK FOR THE CAPES - BRS
Barry Rogliano Salles reported that, there were mixed results for the dry bulk market this week: the Capesize and Panamax markets performed well gai ...
Tuesday, 12 July 11
INDONESIAN MINERS PLAN $70M INVESTMENT TO UPGRADE QUALITY OF COAL - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
One of the leading english language news paper in indonesia, the Jakarta globe reported that, as the government implements a ban on the export of po ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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