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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Sunday, 10 July 11
DRY BULK MARKET SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Stronger Capesize demand has helped propel the dry bulk market forward this week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ending yesterday’s session u ...
Sunday, 10 July 11
INDONESIAN BAYAN RESOURCES TO SUPPLY 100 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO INDIAN UNIVERSAL SUCCESS ENTERPRISES LIMITED
Coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN), that is owned by Dato' Low Tuck Kwong, has entered into a conditional sales and purchase agreement to sup ...
Thursday, 07 July 11
BELOW 5100 COAL WILL BE BANNED FOR EXPORT BY 12 JANUARY 2014
COALspot.com - Indonesian government is in the process of drafting an amendment for government regulation 23/ 2010.
GR 23/2010 has issued to sup ...
Wednesday, 06 July 11
ATLAS RESOURCES TO OFFLOAD 17 PERCENT IPO - INSIDER STORIES
Coking and thermal coal miner PT Atlas Energi Resources aims to offload 17percent new shares of its enlarged capital after Eid-Fitri holidays, as qu ...
Tuesday, 05 July 11
UNTR REVISES UP SALES TO 7,500 UNITS - INSIDER STORIES
PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR), distributor of Komatsu heavy equipment and parent of PT Pamapersada Nusantara, has revised up its equipment sales tar ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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