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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 29 June 11
ANOTHER STRONG PERFORMANCE BY CAPESIZE - BRS
Another strong performance by the Capesize market this week, bringing the BCI up 8% to 1,974 points. However the Panamax market was penalised, losin ...
Monday, 27 June 11
THE IRON ORE IMPORTS BY CHINA SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI was holding as previous week and was just up by 1 point and closed at 1424 points end of last week. The biggest gain was ...
Friday, 24 June 11
THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT WILL NOT EXTEND ALL EXPIRED MINING CONTRACTS - JAKARTA UPDATES
The Indonesian Government have decided not to extend all mining concessions under the scheme called Contract of Work and instead will take over the ...
Friday, 24 June 11
BERAU EYEING 70 PERCENT GROWTH IN EBITDA
Indonesia's coal producer PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU) is eyeing a 60 -70 percent growth in EBITDA to US$ 560 million-US$595 million this year. ...
Thursday, 23 June 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS EXHIBITING SIGNS OF WEAKNESS THIS WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market seems to be unable to climb at new highs this week, showing signs of weakness, across most ship types. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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