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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 20 June 11
5TH ASIA PACIFIC COAL TRADING & INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2011 IS ON THE WAY
Press Release - Since the beginning of 2011, international commodity price has been in a high level, resulting in “TENSION” of energy co ...
Sunday, 19 June 11
S6 AND S7 ROUTES LIKELY TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market seemed to be stabilizing and the BDI and Cape index was up marginally and closed at 1,423 points and 1,824 points ...
Sunday, 19 June 11
BUMI 1Q NET PROFIT INCREASES 16.5 PERCENT
PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI), Indonesia's largest coal exporter that is 25% owned by London-listed Vallar Plc, reported a16.49% increase in net pro ...
Friday, 17 June 11
DRY BULK BREATHES SIGH OF RELEAF ON RENEWED CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has caught a sign of relief from the middle of the week onwards, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) increased once again yesterday, t ...
Thursday, 16 June 11
BOOSTING THE USE OF LOW CARBON ENERGY FOR A BETTER WORLD
Bali, Indonesia host of world renewable energy congress – Indonesia, international conference & exhibition on renewable energy and energy ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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