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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 13 June 11
THE INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE HAS JUMPED 1.2 PERCENT IN JUNE
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources sets coal spot price benchmark for June 2011 at US$ 119.03 per ton, higher than US$ 1. ...
Sunday, 12 June 11
THE FREIGHT MARKET IS LIKELY TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to soften this week except for Panamax index. The BDI was down by about 4.77 pct and closed at 1,418 poi ...
Friday, 10 June 11
DRY BULK ON RETREAT MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
This week has offered dry bulk ship owners no real reason to smile, as the industry’s benchmarket, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has been steadil ...
Friday, 10 June 11
BUKIT ASAM RECORDED RP1.3 TRILLION PROFIT IN MAY - TEMPO INTERACTIVE
Tempo Interactive reported that, PT PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) made a net profit of Rp 1.3 trillion (approx. US$ 152,779,410) at the ...
Friday, 10 June 11
DRY BULK ON RETREAT MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
This week has offered dry bulk ship owners no real reason to smile, as the industry’s benchmarket, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has been steadil ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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