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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 02 June 11
LARGE SUPRAS FOR RBCT/INDIA ROUND ARE NOW ASKING 14K - FEARNBULK
Handy
The Handy/Supra market has in general been flat and un-exciting this week. The Black Sea market is almost non existing while the US Gulf mar ...
Thursday, 02 June 11
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS LOOKING INTO SHORTENED WEEK WITH ANXIETY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With most markets in the western world closed yesterday, as a result of Memorial Day, dry bulk stakeholders weren’t able to build over the pos ...
Monday, 30 May 11
MIANG BESAR COAL TERMINAL ON TARGET
COALspot.com - MBCT, to be largest coal terminal in Asia to start construction in Indonesia’s east Kalimantan Island in July 2011 says Mr. Joh ...
Sunday, 29 May 11
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO GAIN MOMENTUM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to gain momentum and the BDI, Cape Index and Panamax was by up almost 10-12 pct and on all sectors, Vist ...
Saturday, 28 May 11
WCI-CHINA RATES SLIDED TO 15K AND FROM ECI AROUND 12K - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Rates in the Atlantic remain steady/flat with the Black Sea remaining quiet with little fresh enquiries. The Continent is seeing more tonnag ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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