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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 23 May 11
BRMS IS TO START PRODUCTION FROM DAIRI PRIMA MINERALS
COALspot.com - The Presidential Decree No. 28 Year 2011 that allows conditional underground mining in the protected forest areas was issued on 19th ...
Sunday, 22 May 11
INDONESIA - INDIA IS LIKELY TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com - The freight market remained soft beginning of the week, however second half of the week was firm with BDI up by 3.29 pct and closed a ...
Saturday, 21 May 11
OWNERS PREFER TO DO INDO COAL OR NICKEL ORE TO CHINA RATHER THAN GOING TO INDIA - FEARNBULK
Handy
The Atlantic is marked by volatility and very positional, nevertheless USG,NCSA, Cont remain strong thanks to the petcoke, grains and scrap ...
Friday, 20 May 11
GOVT TOLD TO LIMIT COAL, GAS EXPORTS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, a leading news paper in Indonesia, reported that, Amid soaring global oil prices, the government should limit exports of coal and ...
Thursday, 19 May 11
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS DROP 7.98 PERCENT IN APRIL
COALspot.com - Indonesian coal exports dropped to 2.168 million tons in April, and up 7.13 percent on the year and 7.98 percent below March, a ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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