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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 19 May 11
OVERSUPPLY, VERY LARGE ORE CARRIERS EAT UP ON DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
After a brief upward momentum which ended early last week, the Baltic Dry Index, the dry bulk market’s benchmark has returned to its usual pat ...
Wednesday, 18 May 11
THE US COAL INDUSTRY LOGGED EXPORTS OF AROUND 25M TONNES IN 1Q OF 2011 - BRS
Another slow decline in the bulk markets this week, with the BCI losing the most at nearly 5%, the BPI 2.8% and the smaller sizes sub-1% amounts. Th ...
Wednesday, 18 May 11
AKR AIMS TO SELL COAL WORTH RP216 BILLION - PAPER
Bisnis Indonesia, an Indonesia's one of the leading business paper reported that, PT AKR Corporindo Tbk has targeted coal sales valued at Rp216 bil ...
Wednesday, 18 May 11
OVERHAUL OF MINING LAW MAY DETER INVESTMENT, S&P SAYS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe, an Indonesian English language news paper reported that, A report by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services that a regulatory ...
Tuesday, 17 May 11
DRY BULK MARKET ENTERS WEEK ON WEAK MODE - HELLENIC SHIPPING
In yet another sign of softening freight rates for dry bulk carriers and oversupply issues, the dry bulk market entered this week on a downward path ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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