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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 09 May 11
THAILAND COAL IMPORTS SURGE IN Q1 - ICAP SHIPPING
Thailand's coal imports leapt 20% in Q1 and the country looks set to import its largest ever volume in 2011 as quoted by ICAP Shipping web site.
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Monday, 09 May 11
KOSPO SEEKING 65KT STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Southern Power Co (KOSPO) issues tender for 65000 Mt of Steaming Coal Supply with a minimum CV of 4,500 kcal/kg on NAR basis. D ...
Monday, 09 May 11
INDONESIA HBA FALL BELOW $118
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has set the May 2011 Indonesian Coal Reference Price for thermal coal at US$ 11 ...
Monday, 09 May 11
DIAN SWASTATIKA Q1 PROFIT SOARS 511 PERCENT - INSIDER STORIES
PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), parent of coal miner PT Golden Energy Mines, reported a 511.73% jump in net profit for the first quarter of t ...
Saturday, 07 May 11
BERAU INKS DEALS WITH CHINESE FIRMS AS COAL WEATHERS COMMODITIES STORM - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Berau Coal, one of the country’s largest coal miners, has signed sales contracts with two Chinese companies a ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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