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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Saturday, 07 May 11
SUPRAMAXES ARE AT AROUND $ 13,500-14,000 PER DAY FOR SINGLE TRIPS
COALspot.com - The freight remained fairly steady this week with the BDI up by 71 points and closing at 1,340 points, said Capt. Reddy, the director ...
Saturday, 07 May 11
COAL PRODUCTION MAY REACH 95M TONS IN SECOND QUARTER - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Indonesian miners are projected to produce around 95 million tons of coal in the second quarter of this year after l ...
Friday, 06 May 11
BUKIT ASAM TO CLOSE COAL TAKEOVER IN Q2 - INSIDER STORIES
The state-controlled PT Tambang Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) expects to complete acquisition of two coal mining companies from four companies which is now ...
Thursday, 05 May 11
SUPRAS IN NORTH CHINA ARE GETTING CLOSE TO $ 13K FOR INDO-INDIA
Handy
The Atlantic market is stable/flat with positive undertone meaning more enquiries hitting the market today. Lack of prompt vessels. Trips to ...
Thursday, 05 May 11
PANAMAXES LEAD DRY BULK MARKET TO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) managed to edge higher yesterday, rising by 1.81% to 1,292 points, in the first po ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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