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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Saturday, 30 April 11
THE PANAMAX WAS THE BIGGEST GAINER
COALspot.com - The freight market appeared to recover slightly after the Easter holidays. However they market may not move up much and likely to mai ...
Friday, 29 April 11
KOMIPO ISSUES TENDER FOR 710,000 MT OF LCV & HCV COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued a spot supply tender for supply of total 710,000 MT of thermal coal for delivery betw ...
Friday, 29 April 11
HARUM EYES IDR 2.58 TRILLION COAL TAKEOVER
PT Harum Energy Tbk (HRUM), that is controlled by Indonesian tycoon Kiki Barki, is poised to spend Rp 2.58 trillion (approximately US$ 301.296 mln) ...
Friday, 29 April 11
CHINA'S IMPORTS 27 PERCENT LESS COAL IN Q1 2011 - ICAP SHIPPING
ICAP Shipping reported that, China's coal imports in the first quarter were some 27% down on a year ago at 32.3 Mt (2010: 44.4 Mt). Part of the rea ...
Thursday, 28 April 11
BALTIC DRY INDEX NUDGES UP AFTER DAYS OF LOSSES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
After consecutive falls, the dry bulk freight market, as followed through the Baltic Dry Index, finally caught a breather yesterday, with the BDI ma ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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