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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 26 April 11
NTPC CALLS TENDER FOR 4 MLN TON OF NON-COKING COAL
COALspot.com - NTPC Limited, incorporated in 1975 as a public sector company wholly owned by Government of India, is the largest thermal power gener ...
Monday, 25 April 11
THE FUTURES FOR THREE YEARS WAS AT AROUND PANAMAX/US$ 14,000 PER DAY & SUPRAMAX/US$ 14,000 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to soften further with all segments down except for the handy size which was marginally up by 10 points. ...
Saturday, 23 April 11
GUPTA COAL TO BAG ONE MILLION TONS OF COAL SUPPLY ORDER FROM KPCL AT AROUND US$ 127.53 PMT
COALspot.com - Karnataka Power Corporation (KPCL), a state utility of Karnataka, India has secured its one million tons of thermal coal with c ...
Saturday, 23 April 11
STRAITS ASIA SETS 11.5 MIO TONS OUTPUT - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Singapore-listed Straits Asia Resources Limited plans to jack up its coal output target of 8.5% to 11.5 million tons ...
Friday, 22 April 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS FALLING, NOW AT TWO-MONTH LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market seems unable at the moment to recover from the weight of newbuilding deliveries, resulting in too many ships competing for fewer ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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