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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 27 April 11
KEWESPO CALLS FOR 765KT OF THERMAL COAL
COALspot.com - South Korea's East-West Power Co's (KEWESPO) has issued a tender to buy total 765,000 tonnes of thermal coal for delivery between J ...
Wednesday, 27 April 11
HARUM ENERGY TO PAY RP 659.1B IN DIVIDENDS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Indonesian coal miner Harum Energy is planning to pay out Rp 659.1 billion (US$76.46 million) in dividends this year ...
Wednesday, 27 April 11
TSIS $5 MILLION PLANT TO START PRODUCING UPGRADED COAL - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakartapost reported that, PT Total Sinergy International (TSI), in association with Agritrade Resources Limited of Hong Kong, will upgrade its ...
Wednesday, 27 April 11
RAIN CONSIDERS COAL MINES TAKEOVER - INSIDER STORIES
Indonesian's tenth largest coal miner in term of coal concession, PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI), is considering to acquire several coalmine ...
Wednesday, 27 April 11
DRY BULK MARKET LACKS ACTIVITY, RATES KEEP RETREATING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the Easter Holidays for a large of the world now behind, the dry bulk market kept lacking activity on Tuesday, which led the Baltic Dry Index ( ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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