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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 05 May 11
AKR NAMES KARUNIA AS COAL CONTRACTOR
Insider Stories reported that, PT AKR Corporindo Tbk has appointed PT Karunia Bumi Khatulistiwa as the contractor of coal mining concession in North ...
Tuesday, 03 May 11
DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK SEEN WEAK, AS SHIP OWNERS PILE UP MORE SHIPS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the Baltic Dry Index not trading yesterday, it’s worth taking a step back to see the current freight levels. First of all, capesizes and ...
Tuesday, 03 May 11
THE HANDY MARKET CONTINUED TO SLIDE DOWN - BRS
There were marginal increases in rates for the larger sizes this week, with the Cape index remaining stable and the Panamax index logging a 5% incre ...
Monday, 02 May 11
ADARO POSTS 11.7 PERCENT INCREASE IN REVENUES ON HIGHER PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Indonesia’s second-largest coal producer, PT Adaro Energy Tbk, announced an 11.7 percent increase in net reven ...
Saturday, 30 April 11
BUKIT ASAM PROFIT HAS JUMPS 108 PERCENT IN Q1, 2011
The Indonesian state-controlled coal miner PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) reported a 108.07 percent jump in net profit during the first three months of 20 ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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