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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 16 May 11
INDO TAMBANG 1Q SALES REVENUE UP - INSIDER STORIES
Thai Banpu Plc last week reported a 7.83% increase in coal sales revenue from its Indonesian operating unit via PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) ...
Sunday, 15 May 11
THE FREIGHT MARKET REMAINED SOFT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - "The freight market overall remained soft", said Capt. Reddy, Director of Vistaar Shipping Singapore. He further added, &qu ...
Saturday, 14 May 11
WELSPUN TO ACQUIRE AN INDONESIAN COAL MINE - MEDIA
The India based Welspun Power and Steel Ltd is planning to acquire 456,000 shares in PT Batubara Energy Indonesia, representing 75% interest, accord ...
Saturday, 14 May 11
DRY BULK MARKET ON A DOWNFALL ONCE AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In what is now pretty clear will be yet another challenging year for dry bulk ship owners, the Baltic Dry Index returned to its usual pattern of dec ...
Tuesday, 10 May 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RISING, OUTLOOK MIXED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched forward once again on Monday, with the Baltic Dry Index rising by 0.6% to 1,348, although the Capesize market was 0.57% l ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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