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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 09 June 11
INDIKA AIMS TO PRODUCE 31 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2011 - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, a leading English news paper in Indonesia reported that, PT Indika Energy Tbk, an integrated energy company, is targeting to incre ...
Wednesday, 08 June 11
BAYAN TO DISTRIBUTE RP. 80 ( APPROX. US$ 0.00939850) PER SHARE DIVIDEND
Coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN), that is controlled by business Dato' Low Tuck Kwong, will distribute Rp80 a share dividend or Rp266.7 bil ...
Wednesday, 08 June 11
CBM PRODUCTION FROM AUSTRALIA, CHINA, INDIA, AND INDONESIA IS EXPECTED TO WITNESS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE BY 2015
Press Release - According to Global Data (December 2010), CBM production in Australia, China, India, and Indonesia is expected to witness a signific ...
Sunday, 05 June 11
COAL IMPORTS BY CHINA IS LIKELY TO INCREASE - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com - The freight market softened this week except for the BDI and Cape index was up, but even in these sectors the momentum was compared t ...
Friday, 03 June 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RESURGENCE APPEARS TO BE LOSING SOME STEAM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s seems to be losing some steam, despite reports of growing Chinese demand for commodities, especially coal, on the back o ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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