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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 16 June 11
FREIGHT MARKET FAILS TO RECOVER - DREWRY / HELLENIC SHIPPING
With demand failing to improve enough to contain the colossal increases in supply, the dry bulk freight market stayed near the dreadfully low levels ...
Thursday, 16 June 11
VALLAR CONTROLS 84.7 PERCENT STAKE IN BERAU COAL - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, London-based investment company Vallar Plc, via its subsidiary dubbed Vallar Investments UK Limited, today announced ...
Wednesday, 15 June 11
INDONESIA NEW COAL POLICY WORRIES INDIA POWER FIRMS - MYDIGITALFC
Tata Power, Adani group, Lanco Infratech and Reliance Power, among other Indian coal importers, are waiting to assess the impact of the Indonesian g ...
Wednesday, 15 June 11
BAYAN RESOURCES OWNS 56 PERCENT KANGAROO - INSIDER STORIES
Australia-listed coal miner Kangaroo Resources Limited (KRL) has obtained final approval from its shareholders to complete its US$277 million acquis ...
Wednesday, 15 June 11
DRY BULK MARKET WEAKENS AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Despite this time of year traditionally being one of the busiest for the dry bulk market, it seems that in the post-crisis era trade patterns are co ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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