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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 22 June 11
BOOMING INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS - BLEEDING INDIAN POWER INDUSTRY
COALspot.com - Indonesia shipped 28.962 Million tons of coal in May 2011, up by 15.86 percent compared to April export of about 24.995 m ...
Tuesday, 21 June 11
SURGE IN PRODUCTION AND PRICES TO PUSH BUKIT ASAMS NET PROFITS ABOVE RP 3T - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
State-owned coal company Perusahaan Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam expects its net income to increase about 50 percent this year on the back of rising ...
Tuesday, 21 June 11
COURT BATTLE PUTS MASSIVE COAL PROJECT IN JEOPARDY - KOREA JOONGANG DAILY
As Korean companies race to exploit Indonesia’s abundant natural resources, two companies have been locked in a court case that has become so ...
Tuesday, 21 June 11
DRY BULK MARKET TURNS RED AGAIN ON VESSEL OVERSUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk entered this week on a negative turn, with the industry’s benchmark the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) retreating by 0.35% to end the ses ...
Monday, 20 June 11
KPCL SETS ALL INDIA & POSSIBLY A WORLD RECORD FOR COAL DISCHARGING
COALspot.com - Krishnapatnam Port has set an all India record for discharging 95,528 tons of steam coal in just 24 hrs using the conventional unload ...
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Showing 5216 to 5220 news of total 6871 |
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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