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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Sunday, 03 July 11
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT HAS CLEARED 1509 COAL IUP'S AS CLEAR AND CLEAN
COALspot.com - The Directorate general of mineral & coal of Indonesia has cleared around 1,509 IUP holders (coal mining companies) as "clea ...
Sunday, 03 July 11
MONSOON IN INDIA PUSHED FREIGHTS UP FROM INDONESIA TO WC INDIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to hold closing just 2 points below last week at 1,422 points which was supported by Cape index which was up by 71 ...
Friday, 01 July 11
BEN LINE OPENS A NEW OFFICE IN BERAU
COALspot.com - Ben Line Agencies has announced that it has opened a new office in the busy coal loading port of Berau in East Kalimantan increasing ...
Friday, 01 July 11
CAPESIZE RATES TO REMAIN DEPRESSED IN COMING MONTHS SAYS SHIPPING ORGANIZATION - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In a recent report, BIMCO reassessed that Capesize freight rates will remain in depressed territory in the coming months. Capesize Time Charter Aver ...
Thursday, 30 June 11
DRY BULK MARKET SHOWS SIGNS OF FURTHER WEAKENING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market seems to be unable to shake off the additional supply of vessels, an oversupply issue of grave concern that would have occured e ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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