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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 12 July 11
DRY BULK MARKET BEGINS WEEK ON RETREAT MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As was evident by the end of the previous week, the dry bulk market’s growth momentum was about to lose steam, something proven yesterday, whe ...
Monday, 11 July 11
REFLECTIONS ON THE FLEET REACHING ONE BILLION TONNES - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
“A billion gross tonnes of shipping” has a nice ring to it. It presents the industry as a business of substance, with its 85,000 ships w ...
Sunday, 10 July 11
UNTR PROVIDES US$100 MIO TO TTA - INSIDER STORIES
PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) agreed to allocate US$100 million to its coal subsidiary dubbed PT Tuah Turangga Agung (TTA).The US$100 million was pa ...
Sunday, 10 July 11
HARDLY ANY CARGO FROM WC INDIA UNTIL END OF MONSOONS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to hold last week and firmed up by 27 points with cape and panama index supporting the BDI.
The BDI closed at 1, ...
Sunday, 10 July 11
PTBA INCREASES SHARES IN COAL TRAIN PROJECT - TEMPO INTERACTIVE
TEMPO Interactive reported that, PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA) is still studying the plan to buy 20 percent of shares in the PT Bukit Asam T ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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