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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 19 July 11
82 MIO TONS OF COAL TO BE SUPPLIED FOR DOMESTIC MARKET
Indonesian Coal miners were required to supply 82 million tons of coal to Domestic market in this year. This is a 2.53 percent higher than last year ...
Monday, 18 July 11
IMFA BUYS A INDONESIAN COAL MINE FOR USD 8.7 M
Indian Metals and Ferro Alloys (IMFA), the largest producer of ferro chrome in the country, today said it has acquired 70 per cent stake in an Indones ...
Sunday, 17 July 11
THE COAL PRICES ARE SOFTENING DUE TO LESS DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The markets were down last week with BDI down by 6.63 points and closing at 1,353 points. The most affected was Cape index which was d ...
Friday, 15 July 11
DRY BULK MARKET SUFFERS NEW BLOW, RETREATS EVEN FURTHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market fell even lower yesterday on the back of lower demand for larger vessels, like Capesizes and Panamaxes. The industry’s ben ...
Friday, 15 July 11
BUKIT ASAM 1H COAL SALES UP 44 PERCENT
The state-controlled PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) is estimated to post 6.5 million tons of coal sales in the first half of this year, a ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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