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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Saturday, 23 July 11
PANAMAX MARKET FACED A LIMITED ACTIVITY IN ALL BASINS
Handy
Atlantic softening across all segments with little fresh enquiry ex Bsea/Cont/USG and ECSA. Trips to Far east remain healthy. More cargoes ex ...
Friday, 22 July 11
MARUBENI ACQUIRING 42.86% SHARE OF YTL JAWA POWER HOLDINGS
COALspot.com - Japan’s Marubeni Corporation acquisition 42.86% stake in YTL Jawa Power Holdings BV, which owns a 35% equity interest in Indone ...
Thursday, 21 July 11
INDIA IMPORTS 36.033 MILLION TONS OF INDONESIAN COAL TILL JUNE
COALspot.com - Indonesia shipped 28.27 Million tons of coal in June 2011, a 2.3 percent lesser than May export of about 28.962 million tons, I ...
Thursday, 21 July 11
COAL PRICES ARE AT US$ 120 A TONNE
COALspot.com - Indonesian coal production in 2011 is expected to reach 360 million tons or 5.8 percent higher than government's forecasts. The incr ...
Thursday, 21 July 11
DRY BULK RATES EDGE FURTHER DOWN ON WEAK MARKET SENTIMENT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market fell once again on Wednesday marking the ninth straight day of losses. The industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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