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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 29 July 11
5300 ADB COAL WILL BE AT US$ 60/TON IN THIS QUARTER - RAIN
COALspot.com - PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI) seeing the average selling price of its coal for the third quarter of this year will increase t ...
Thursday, 28 July 11
PTBA'S COAL PRICES UP IN H1 2011
COALspot.com - Bukit Asam’s coal prices in the second half of 2011 will expected to be higher than the first half of this year, said Sukrisno, ...
Thursday, 28 July 11
RESOURCE ALAM 1H PROFIT SURGES 208 PERCENT
Indonesia's tenth largest coal miner in term of concessions, PT Resource Alam Indonesia (KKGI), part of Rain Group, today reported a skyrocket net ...
Thursday, 28 July 11
DRY BULK MARKET EDGES FURTHER DOWN ON ADDED PRESSURE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an indicator of dry bulk freight rates has reached new lows this week, with yesterday’s session ending further dow ...
Wednesday, 27 July 11
BLACKSTONE TO INVEST INR 5,000 MILLION (APPRX. US$ 111 MILLION) IN VISA POWER
Press Release - The Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) today announced that it will be investing INR 5,000 million (c. USD 111 million) in VISA Power ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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