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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 09 August 11
DRY BULK MARKET UNABLE TO FIND UPWARD MOMENTUM, SLUMPS AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
They same that what goes up must come down and nobody seems to have found a better application of this expression, than the beleguered dry bulk mark ...
Monday, 08 August 11
OIL PRICES ARE SOFTENING, WILL IT INFLUENCE COAL PRICES?
COALspot.com - The current global economic condition is in volatility after a little chance of optimism for economic recovery.
Oil price at ...
Monday, 08 August 11
A SUPRAMAX VESSEL WAS REPORTED FIXED AT $ 12K - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI was slightly up by about 4 points closed at 1268 points which was supported by cape index which was up 3.14 pct and closed at ...
Saturday, 06 August 11
NTPC IS CONSIDERING TO ENTER INTO 25 YEARS COAL PURCHASE AGREEMENT
Indian, State-run power producer NTPC's present annual consumption is 164 million tonnes, and company is considering long-term agreements abroad to ...
Friday, 05 August 11
RIO TINTO SIGNS MOU WITH JINDAL STEEL AND POWER ON ADVANCING HISMELT TECHNOLOGY
Press Release - Rio Tinto has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Jindal Steel and Power Limited (JSPL) to take the next step in g ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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