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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 23 August 11
COAL DEMAND IS REMAINED STRONG IN SPITE OF CURRENT GLOBAL ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY - BUMI
COALspot.com - Indonesia's largest coal producer, PT Bumi Resources, Tbk (BUMI)'s sales revenue has increased to US$1.79 billion (compared with US ...
Tuesday, 23 August 11
PENRHYN COAL USING EVERGREEN ENERGYS COAL UPGRADING PROCESS
Evergreen Energy Inc has announced the successful testing results of the initial batches of Penrhyn coal using Evergreen Energy’s coal upgradi ...
Tuesday, 23 August 11
A SHARP INCREASE IN THE BDI - BRS
A sharp increase in the BDI this week, driven by the rise in Capesize rates. Overall the BDI was up 13.5% to 1,462 points on the back of a 20% surge ...
Monday, 22 August 11
INDONESIA TO BAN BELOW 5700 KCAL/KG COAL FOR EXPORT
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia is in the process of drafting a regulation which is requiring mine owners ...
Monday, 22 August 11
JATENERGY AGREED TO FORM JV WITH AN INDONESIAN COAL MINING COMPANY
COALspot.com - Australian’s listed company, Jatenergy Limited has entered conditional agreement to form joint venture with Indonesia’s c ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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