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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 08 September 11
TRADA MARITIME BUYS GUNUNG BARA UTAMA
Insider Stories reported that, PT Trada Maritime Tbk (TRAM) has purchased convertible bonds issued by PT Awesome Coal from Zakia Limited. The memora ...
Thursday, 08 September 11
PETROSEA ADDS US$730 MIO CONTRACT
Coal mining contractor PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO), a majority owned subsidiary of energy integrated company PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY), has secured a U ...
Wednesday, 07 September 11
ANOTHER EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG WEEK FOR THE CAPESIZE MARKET - BRS
The very strong rise in Cape rates pushed through an overall improvement in the BDI this week, although relatively little benefit from the Capes has ...
Wednesday, 07 September 11
INDIA HIT BY INDONESIAS COAL PRICE - TEMPO INTERACTIVE
TEMPO Interactive, an Indonesian online news portal reported that, The Indian government has complained about the price increase of Indonesian coal, ...
Wednesday, 07 September 11
SAMPUR POWER AGREEMENT SIGNED - DAILY NEWS
Daily News, Sri Lank's national news paper reported that, the agreement for the setting up of a 500 MW coal-fired power plant at Sampur, Trincomale ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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