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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Sunday, 20 November 11
THE FREIGHT MARKETS EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market continued to move up with all sectors gaining except for handy size.
The BDI was up by 3.26 pct and closed at 1895 poin ...
Friday, 18 November 11
MMTC SEEKS 1.365 MMT OF IMPORTED COAL
COALspot.com - India's MMTC, the largest trading company of India and a major trading company of Asia, has issued a term supply tender for 1.365Mt ...
Friday, 18 November 11
KPC, ARUTMIN OUTPUT REACHED 47.1 MIO TONS - INSIDER STORIES
PT Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) and PT Arutmin Indonesia, reported 47.1 million tons of coal production in 9M 2011, according to Indiser Stories.
Insi ...
Friday, 18 November 11
THE ATLANTIC SUPRAMAX MARKET EXPERIENCED A STEADY AND FIRM TENDENCY
Handy
The Atlantic Supramax market experienced a steady and firm tendency this week. Especially the North Atlantic and Mediterranean position ...
Friday, 18 November 11
BERAU COAL 9M PROFIT SOARS 194.46% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), which is 84.7% owned by Bumi Plc, reported a 194.46% jump in net profit by end of Se ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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