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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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