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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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