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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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