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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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