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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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