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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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