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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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