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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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