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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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