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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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