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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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