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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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