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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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