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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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