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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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