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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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