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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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