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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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