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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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