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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
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