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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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