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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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