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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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Showing 61 to 65 news of total 6871 |
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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