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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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