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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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