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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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