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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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