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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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