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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 15 January 11
MAKE SACRIFICES TO SAVE PLN, INDONESIA GOVT BEGS MINERS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Darwin Zahedi Saleh, Indonesia's minister of energy and mineral resources, on Friday appealed to local coal compan ...
Saturday, 15 January 11
RISING PRICES, GOVERNMENT DECREE LEAVE PLN AT LOGGERHEADS WITH COAL FIRMS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, As coal prices continue to increase, state utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara faces problems in securing enough coal ...
Thursday, 13 January 11
SURGING COAL PRICES UNDERMINE PLN'S EFFICIENCY PROGRAM - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, The soaring global coal prices are undermining state electricity company PT PLN's pledge to improve its operational ...
Thursday, 13 January 11
SPML INFRA TO DOUBLE INDONESIA COAL MINE OUTPUT IN TWO YEARS - DNA INDIA
DNA India reported that, Kolkata-based infrastructure company SPML Infra, formerly Subhash Projects & Marketing Ltd, will in two years nearly do ...
Thursday, 13 January 11
DRY BULK RATES HIT NEW MULTI-MONTH LOWS ON AUSTRALIAS FLOODS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Floods in Australia’s Queensland has seriously disrupted coal shipments and together with a flood of vessels has pushed freight rates for dry ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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